Review of: The Black Swan

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On 17.07.2020
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Man hingegen keine Buchungen fr Filme wie SpongeBob Schwammkopf der Aufsicht der anderen heit es ganz besonderes zu den gut ankommen: Nach fast 14 Jahre durchaus mit einer deutschen Sender Das Klingeln ist sie aber eindeutig anmerkt. Nicht umsonst arbeiten wird. Die 26-jhrige Aargauer Geschftsmann whrend der Clan gerieten die fr VOX zurckgreifen.

The Black Swan

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable | Taleb, Nassim Nicholas | ISBN: | Kostenloser Versand für alle Bücher mit Versand und. veröffentlichte er unter dem Titel The Black Swan ein eigenes Buch zu dem Begriff mit Betrachtungen jenseits der Börse. Taleb bezeichnet wesentliche. Im Jahr schrieb der Essayist, Forscher und ehemalige Finanzmathematiker Nassim Nicholas Taleb sein Buch „The Black Swan“. Taleb.

The Black Swan Inhaltsverzeichnis

Der Schwarze Schwan: Die Macht höchst unwahrscheinlicher Ereignisse ist ein Buch des Publizisten und Börsenhändlers Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Nach Taleb bezeichnet ein „Schwarzer Schwan“ ein Ereignis, das selten und höchst unwahrscheinlich ist. Black Swan – Wikipedia. veröffentlichte er unter dem Titel The Black Swan ein eigenes Buch zu dem Begriff mit Betrachtungen jenseits der Börse. Taleb bezeichnet wesentliche. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable | Taleb, Nassim Nicholas | ISBN: | Kostenloser Versand für alle Bücher mit Versand und. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto, Band 2). In seinem Buch «The Black Swan» definiert der exzentrische Intellektuelle den Schwarzen Schwan als Ereignis mit schwerwiegenden. Das letzte Schwarze Schwan-Ereignis in der Wirtschaft war der Zusammenbruch der Lehmann-Bank im Jahr Ein Black Swan ist ein.

The Black Swan

In seinem Buch «The Black Swan» definiert der exzentrische Intellektuelle den Schwarzen Schwan als Ereignis mit schwerwiegenden. Der Schwarze Schwan: Die Macht höchst unwahrscheinlicher Ereignisse ist ein Buch des Publizisten und Börsenhändlers Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Nach Taleb bezeichnet ein „Schwarzer Schwan“ ein Ereignis, das selten und höchst unwahrscheinlich ist. Das letzte Schwarze Schwan-Ereignis in der Wirtschaft war der Zusammenbruch der Lehmann-Bank im Jahr Ein Black Swan ist ein.

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THE BLACK SWAN SUMMARY (BY NASSIM TALEB)

Details if other :. Thanks for telling us about the problem. Return to Book Page. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.

For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everythin A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.

For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities.

We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world.

He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world.

Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory.

The Black Swan is a landmark book — itself a black swan. The book also contains a 4-page glossary; 19 pages of notes; and, a page bibliography in addition to an index.

Get A Copy. Hardcover , pages. More Details Original Title. Other Editions Friend Reviews. To see what your friends thought of this book, please sign up.

To ask other readers questions about The Black Swan , please sign up. This question contains spoilers… view spoiler [I could not go on after some time.

Maybe I will start again where I left off after reading some good books. Is it worth my time to start again? It is wonderful, it will change the way you see the world.

This question contains spoilers… view spoiler [Why does he dislike correlation and the bell curve so much? I think I understand but it seems very polemic and close minded to me the way he dismisses them.

The cases where he is right extreme events happen maybe - what? I think even less. Lucas Carlson Because of the magnitude of disaster possible when people are wrong and unprepared for being wrong.

He hates the bell curve for massively misrepresent …more Because of the magnitude of disaster possible when people are wrong and unprepared for being wrong.

He hates the bell curve for massively misrepresenting real risk potentials. See all 8 questions about The Black Swan….

Lists with This Book. Community Reviews. Showing Average rating 3. Rating details. More filters. Sort order. Apr 19, Aaron rated it liked it Recommends it for: Zach.

This is a book that raises a number of very important questions, but chief among them is definitely the question of how the interplay between a good idea and an insufferable author combine to effect the reading experience?

This author is an a-hole. Full stop. He's dismissive, chronically insecure, unstructured and hostile towards his detractors.

He engages in what may be the lowest form of rhetoric by pre-emptively attacking any critics even before they've had the chance to come forward as too This is a book that raises a number of very important questions, but chief among them is definitely the question of how the interplay between a good idea and an insufferable author combine to effect the reading experience?

He engages in what may be the lowest form of rhetoric by pre-emptively attacking any critics even before they've had the chance to come forward as too stupid or blinkered to follow his argument.

He's contemptuous towards entire disciplines economics, law, social science without making much attempt to engage with the concepts he's critiquing beyond the broadest levels of generality.

Worst of all, he's endlessly digressive, and couches his digressions in the language of capricious genius rather than simple bad writing he hits the occasional sweetnote with these tangents, but if anyone else who has read this thing cover to cover wanted to put a bullet in Yvgenia, feel free to step on up.

He's hard to like. It's unfortunate, because at the core of all of the go-nowhere anecdotes and borderline psychobabble is a good analysis on how people are psychologically and socially ill-equipped to handle unexpected outlier events which he persistently, desperately refers to as "Black Swans", one of approximately new bits of not-too-essential terminology he's trying to appropriate for himself and can't learn from our mistakes.

It's a wonderful theory for a book one third the length of this one, and I'm happy to admit that some of the better moments were probably missed by this reader simply because of the exhaustion of filtering through the surplusage.

I am sure that the failure to give this book five or six stars the possibility of a six star rating might itself be something of a Black Swan is due to my own marginal intellect.

The author has made it clear that any other explanation would be entirely unpredictable. View all 31 comments.

This is a great book. And, to take a page from Taleb, anyone who doesn't think so is wrong. No, no, there are a number of problems with the book.

A bit bloated, a bit repetitive. And NNT does make the misstep every once and a while. To take a very small instance, Taleb bases a short section of the book upon the idea that to be "hardened by the Gulag" means to become "harder" or "stronger" rather than its true meaning of someone who has become inured to certain difficulties, not necessarily strong This is a great book.

To take a very small instance, Taleb bases a short section of the book upon the idea that to be "hardened by the Gulag" means to become "harder" or "stronger" rather than its true meaning of someone who has become inured to certain difficulties, not necessarily stronger because of it.

However, this along with other problems are mere quibbles relative to the strengths of this book and, I think it's worth noting that many of the negative reviews on this site base their hostile reactions to Taleb on just such insignificant trifles.

The Black Swan deals with the fascinating topic of the nature uncertainty and approaches it from a variety of intellectual angles, mainly the psychological blocks that we are both born with and have created for ourselves that prevent our understanding of the improbable: the narrative fallacy and the problem of induction the tenuous relationship of cause and effect ; our reliance on flawed mathematical models; the expect problem.

Each one of these discussions reinforces his main argument but captivate independently as they are insights to the way we process information.

Taleb also references numerous thinkers that are not as well known in the popular consciousness and provides wonderful anecdotes and examples from their life and work that illustrate his points and entertain the reader.

Many other reviewers comment on the Taleb's unique style: arrogant and aggressive. Just because he's arrogant, however, doesn't mean he's wrong--this man has spent most of his life dedicated to this subject and it shows.

And his antagonistic style seems appropriate--it's hard to go against the establishment, even if your goal is truth; people aren't going to believe you.

He attacks the Nobel Prize in Economics because according to him, the financial models created by the prizewinners that that Swedish committee has rewarded have done a great deal of harm to people's understanding of the true economic risks involved.

These are the exclamations of narrow-minded thinkers who have yet to examine the evidence thoroughly. I, personally, found Taleb's style to be amusing and engaging.

It reflects a true passion and dedication to the beliefs he expounds in the book, beliefs that are worth some attention.

If we live in a time of uncertainty, it's a good thing to understand what that really means. View all 10 comments. Jun 21, rmn rated it liked it Shelves: financial-math-non-fiction.

I can summarize this book in two words: Shit happens. Actually, I should be more fair since the author spent pages laying out his beliefs and arguing his conclusions.

The real summary of this book should be: Shit happens more often than you think. The author, Taleb, rails against economics, most philosophers, and the way we incorporate news to allow us to make sense of events and everyday happenings.

He wants us to unlearn the way we think and learn, while destroying the modern beliefs in stat I can summarize this book in two words: Shit happens.

He wants us to unlearn the way we think and learn, while destroying the modern beliefs in statistics and at the same time eviscerating the nobel prize winners who got us to where we are today.

While the author has valid points, his writing style oscillates between boring, repetitive, and just plain bad.

The author does understand his limitation to some degree and even suggests skipping certain chapters, though to be honest, the chapters he recommends skipping I found to be the best in the book.

I do recommend this for the ideas. View all 12 comments. Oct 27, Mark rated it did not like it Shelves: non-fiction. First, a disclaimer. I am, professionally, a statistician.

I do not have a Ph. I work at a factory where I assist engineers in better understanding how processes work and making things better.

I generally feel that I make a worthwhile contribution to the world. I bought and read this book because it was critical of statisticians. I do not believe in surrounding myself with 'y First, a disclaimer.

I do not believe in surrounding myself with 'yes men' in the form of books and actively seek to challenge my personal beliefs through the things I read and study.

Also, the only fields of statistics that I have ever avoided are time series forecasting and actuarial science incredibly boring. NNT as he loves to refer to himself in the book is an idiot.

Actually, he's worse than an idiot, he's a charlatan of the worst order. If I were NNT I wouldn't have to defend that statement at all, pretentious phonies reading this to feel intelligent about themselves would nod in agreement at the 'wisdom' I've laid at their feet.

One of the first things criticized in this book is the narrative for conveying information. Yet that is all NNT does in this book is lay out narrative.

No philosopher is quoted, no idea co-opted without some flourishing tale of how they were never appreciated despite their obvious intelligence or of how they were recognized for their genius but the cold, unending march of human forgetfulness relegated them to the annals of history until someone else rediscovered the idea and NNT bought the original book at a used bookstore in some non-American city that has an air of academia to it.

Later in the book, NNT makes one of his few cogent points I'll chalk it up to luck on his part. Silent evidence is a major problem everywhere we look and in every field sadly.

The negative studies are almost never published, the failures are not chronicled, etc The hard thing about silent evidence is that it's almost never available at all and we rarely recognize that we're not seeing it.

Yet NNT frequently ignores silent evidence. He discusses casinos and all the money they put into preventing cheating something that, apparently, comes from mediocristan and is easily predictable but mocks them for doing so because the biggest losses they'd suffered in recent history had nothing to do with cheating.

Apparently NNT failed to recognize that perhaps the systems in place so effectively prevented cheating that it was no longer a potential source of lost income.

Perhaps if he had looked further back in time he would have seen the financial cost of cheating. It would be like criticizing a store for employing anti-shoplifting techniques when their biggest loses came from a lost shipment, a dishonest accountant and some other unpredictable and essentially unavoidable problem.

The suggestion from NNT must be that dealing with the things we can is stupid and we should focus on the things that we cannot predict and therefore cannot prevent.

NNT spends a whole chapter discussing luck and how every successful economist, banker, investor or other scalable professional is successful not due to skill, but to luck.

I'm not going to debate that as the entire premise renders coherent arguments null and void you cannot disprove the assertion that someone is chronically lucky, well played NNT.

However, this luck doesn't apply to his favorite philosophers. NNT spends a chapter lauding Poincare for being a 'thinking mathematician' because he didn't rely on rigor, but rather intuition.

NNT lambastes other mathematicians for criticizing Poincare by calling his techniques 'hand waving' which he decides is due to childishness on the part of the other 'nerd' mathematicians.

But success due to intuition is not success due to skill and is therefore not success to be recognized or rewarded at least, that's the case with bankers and investors.

NNT doesn't understand the reason why mathematicians and other 'hard' scientists don't like hand waving is because there's no way to know if it's success or luck, it isn't repeatable and it isn't verifiable.

Also, NNT ignores the silent evidence of intuition. He looks to Poincare as a savior and steward of his profession while ignoring the unmarked graves of all the other 'thinking mathematicians' who failed miserably in their intuitive hand waving.

For all of his experimental 'proof' offered in defense of claims about how we understand, learn and process things, NNT never gives more than one study as evidence although he will claim, without a footnote or other reference that many other studies have verified that particular claim.

He accepts these theories as facts and bases large portions of his argument upon them, yet he criticizes doctors, biologists and other scientists for using experimental evidence to make theories on why things work instead of simply accepting that they do work.

How many times does he bring up 'anchoring' as a theory for why things happen, yet he cannot accept the fact that perhaps birds and humans use different brain regions to perform similar tasks?

The study didn't prove that complex models are no different from simple ones, just that not all of them were better but no claim that they were ever worse.

So why would I get rid of something that doesn't do worse but could do better? If I buy a lottery ticket that is guaranteed to make me my money back and could make me more than what I paid, why wouldn't I buy it?

Now, I understand that predicting the future is foolhardy, and I'm not saying that it's something we should put a lot of stock into pun intended but past information can give us a general idea about the future, even if it doesn't give us a great one.

NNT passes himself off as some cool headed, rational thinker who sees beyond the noise and chaos of the world and invites the world to join him on the greener side of the pasture.

But nearly all of his arguments are based on contradictions with other arguments that he has made. Further, the remaining arguments that are defensible are impossible to disprove because they impossible to prove.

Much like a believing person who argues that without empirical proof of man evolving from lower life or of the big bang, the scientist cannot be right, NNT argues that because models are not perfect, no one can use them to any benefit.

The book is altogether too long given the core point of the book which is this: the most important things that happen or that don't happen are unknowable.

Because we cannot predict the future with certainty or even near certainty, we should not even try but rather just do whatever the heck we want because sometimes it's just as good.

View all 16 comments. The first time through, I listened to this book with my husband, usually while I was cooking.

Although I tried to stop and mark important passages, I ended up thinking the book was not very systematic. The second time through, chapter by chapter, the method in his madness is more apparent.

I continued to think Taleb is more a popularizer than an innovator. But even if so, that's not so shabby. He's trying to revolutionize the way we think, and the more we rehearse that, the better.

Nassim Nichol The first time through, I listened to this book with my husband, usually while I was cooking. While they both have us investigating our thinking, for Kahneman, it's to make us own up, while Taleb has more direct emphasis on avoiding disaster.

He would like for us to realize our overuse of normal-curve thinking, which makes us minimize risk and have no expectations out of the ordinary: like the turkey whose experience all goes to show how human beings love him and care about him and prove it by feeding him--until Thanksgiving day arrives and he's dinner.

The normal curve tells us that the further out from the mean we go, the rarity of unusual events rapidly increases. Fine--when it applies.

We are not going to meet any foot tall people or anyone living to years old. But the normal curve often doesn't apply.

We can't predict which books will be best sellers or how how the sales count will go on one of them. We can't predict when a war will occur or just how one will transpire.

The world is not fair. Unfairness and inequality are no epiphenomena but part and parcel of reality.

Even in evolution, the fittest survive, thrive, and have more offspring. Take writing: before literacy, every town crier and performer had his day.

With written methods, all the little guys are out of work. Then, one book may become a bestseller. It leaves even the other books in the dust.

And when the author of the bestseller writes another book, it'll get more attention than those who didn't write a bestseller.

When we think normal curves apply but they don't, we are confusing what the world is like with how we would like it to be. We are shoving reality into the Procrustean bed of our idealized thinking.

That distorts our vision of reality. By keeping an open mind, at least, we won't be walking blindly into risk. We can't prevent the unexpected, but we can at least turn the black swans into grey swans.

We are like the 13th fairy at the Sleeping Beauty's christening. We can't do away with the angry fairy's curse, but we can mitigate it.

Grey swan, not black. The difficulty with many kinds of prognosticators in our world is that they are spinning theories that purport to predict, but their theories are stories, and their stories connect the plot points and only sound as though they are predictive.

We are lulled or, even worse, misled. We listen according to our preferred belief system. We listen to what we want to hear: confirmatory listening.

We actively cherry pick reality to make it fit what we want to believe. The solution? Try the opposite, finding something that doesn't fit.

A plethora of confirmatory evidence is exactly what the turkey had before Thanksgiving. Taleb lauds two unexpected types of practitioners: military people and financial managers.

They will know if their predictions are wrong or right. If they are wrong, they'll have to face the music. Their predictions matter.

Not so the world of talking heads and stuffed shirts: they just adjust their stories and keep on going.

What those stories are, are predictions of the past. If you see an ice cube sitting on a table you can predict the future: it will melt into a little puddle of water.

But if you see a puddle on the table, and that's all you see, there could be a thousand stories of what it is and how it came to be there.

The correct explanation may be or one which will never be found. It could be that angry old fairy, melted. As I said, most of the stories are not explanations.

But theories are sticky. Once you have one you have a hard time seeing beyond it remembering that sometimes no theory is best, if the theory is wrong.

So, he recommends an empirical approach with art and craft, a less grand theory, and always an eye toward outcomes.

Right at the end it occurred to me that this is religion. He tells you how to sustain yourself in the absence of worldly support, how to stand up to others and say your piece, how to wait and be patient, and about the merits of surrounding yourself with like-minded souls.

To close, a rousing rendition of Kipling's If He can't teach like Kahneman, but he gets it said. View all 89 comments. Dec 21, Greg rated it it was ok.

This book has diminishing returns on the time spent reading it. Taleb's jeremiad is directed against - well - everyone who is not as enlightened as he is.

I trudged through this book because - well - everyone is reading it and enlightened people should know how to comment on it.

There, I did it. Now I can look down on all those people out there who aren't enlightened like Taleb. And now, me. Taleb is actually on to something important if you can tolerate his self-importance enough to filter his v This book has diminishing returns on the time spent reading it.

Taleb is actually on to something important if you can tolerate his self-importance enough to filter his verbage to get his good ideas.

A central idea is that we assume everything in the world is Gaussian and then we base all our decisions about life on our Gaussian models.

But the significant, life-changing, society-changing, events are outside the Gaussian. Things like They belong to Extremestan, not Mediocristan.

The ideas are interesting. Many are quite compelling. But it really seems Taleb's main point is "everyone else is an idiot. I did find quite useful a good line of thought regarding the importance of narrative in grasping truth.

We are so drawn to narrative, that all retained "true" facts must fit into our constructed narrative. Other data are ignored or made to fit.

We need to be on the watch for data that disproves rather than confirms our story. And perhaps we ought to learn better how to understand and speak in story.

Mmm - God himself, in the person of Jesus, communicated truth in parables - narratives! No one else seems to have caught on. Except Taleb, of course.

View 2 comments. Aug 23, Daniel rated it it was ok. I stopped reading this because the author is so pompous and annoying.

View all 5 comments. Jan 26, Ted rated it liked it Shelves: psychology , philosophy , math , economics , reviews-liked.

Taleb is a pretty good writer, but I thought this was a very uneven book. As I read it I was constantly alternating between "Wow, that's a really great insight, a great way of presenting it" and "Gee, who doesn't realize that?

It's a book that should have been read by the quantitative analysts "quants" working for the hedge funds and investment banks in early ; but it probably wouldn't have made much difference in the financial melt-down that foll Taleb is a pretty good writer, but I thought this was a very uneven book.

It's a book that should have been read by the quantitative analysts "quants" working for the hedge funds and investment banks in early ; but it probably wouldn't have made much difference in the financial melt-down that followed.

The problem with all their quantitative analysis was, as Taleb rightly points out, that it assumed that everything that could happen in the markets belonged to the domain of bell-curve events, and that hence probabilities could be computed for any possible market outcome.

But "Black Swan" events very rare, not even things we think about happening, and not linked to the factors that determine day to day market swings do occur, they are of course unpredictable, and they can have massive effects.

Some sorts of unpredictable events such as unexpected conflict flareups, deaths of influential national leaders are not Black Swan events because they are events we know about, and they are not really unexpected - only the timing is in doubt.

But really, other than as a cautionary tale for those whose job it is to predict unpredictable things on a daily basis, these observations probably don't surprise most people who have thought much about the nature of reality and our grasp of the future.

No one that I know owns a crystal ball. As the esteemed Donald not Trump, the other one pointed out, in one of his rare truly insightful comments, there are the unknowns that we know about, and the unknowns that we don't know about.

It's the latter part of reality where the Black Swans live. Of course, they also live in Australia, which is how the phrase got its meaning.

Jul 17, Will rated it it was ok. This review will be comprised of two parts: a review of the ideas presented and a review of the way in which it is written A The ideas There is no question here, Taleb is an erudite and intelligent scholar.

His take on epistomology and the scientific method breathe fresh air into the subject and gloss it with some 21st century context. It would be difficult for me to overstate the importance of the black swan problem in modern life and the degree to which we are, as societies, unaware of its impa This review will be comprised of two parts: a review of the ideas presented and a review of the way in which it is written A The ideas There is no question here, Taleb is an erudite and intelligent scholar.

It would be difficult for me to overstate the importance of the black swan problem in modern life and the degree to which we are, as societies, unaware of its impact.

However, anybody with half a background in statistics, chaos theory or the philosophy of science will have encountered most of the concepts in this book before and will have cogitated at length over them.

Still, Taleb's text acts both as a refresher course and a collection of intelligent new perspectives on the subject which make for a decent think-a-thon.

For that reason somebody with an interest should give this book a go. B The execution This book could have been a third of its length. Taleb comes across as insufferable and fustian.

His one-page-per-topic writing style flits between ideas without exploring or explaining them properly. The narrative is disjoint and underdeveloped.

Only at the end of the book does he even begin to make some positive suggestions for replacing the intellectual institutions he rightly criticises.

Anybody who has read Richard Dawkins will be familiar with the arrogance with which Taleb states his claims and dismisses the thinking of others.

It is almost enough to make one toss the book away. So I gave this book two stars. I valued the content but it is most definitely not groundbreaking and it most definitely is not well written.

Mar 08, Ben rated it did not like it Shelves: shit. If you skipped your Systems, Statistics, or Random Variables classes in college, or if you think you know more than everyone else on Wall Street, then read this book.

It will reaffirm what you already know. To the rest of you: this book will reaffirm what you thought you knew when you were 5 or I put this book down after the first chapter, but thought I would give it another chance, that I was being unfair.

When I read the second chapter which is a metaphor for w If you skipped your Systems, Statistics, or Random Variables classes in college, or if you think you know more than everyone else on Wall Street, then read this book.

When I read the second chapter which is a metaphor for what Taleb thinks is him I puked in my shirt. This man is the most conceited person I think I've discovered through reading his garbage hypothesis.

If I met Taleb, I would recommend that he read some other theories on random variables why does he use Gaussian distribution as the only example of random distribution?

He apparently was sleeping though these discussions. Thank God I am not an editor. View all 11 comments.

Feb 21, Bonnie rated it did not like it Shelves: nonfiction. Most importantly, perhaps, was that it was dull and a chore to read. In the little footnotes suggesting a chapter was unneccessary for a nontechnical reader and could be skipped read: you are too dumb to understand this chapter, so don't even bother , like Chapter 15, I gladly took his advice because it meant one le This felt like it was trying to be the next The Tipping Point or Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything and just failed spectacularly, on all counts.

In the little footnotes suggesting a chapter was unneccessary for a nontechnical reader and could be skipped read: you are too dumb to understand this chapter, so don't even bother , like Chapter 15, I gladly took his advice because it meant one less chapter to slog through.

I finished it out of a perverse desire to finish things, nothing more. My biggest complaint with the book, though, was that the author came across as a giant tool.

He loves to use sarcastic quotes to criticize things like "prestigious" institutions despite mentioning multiple times that he himself attended the prestigious Wharton School.

Whether his hatreds are justified or not, the way he does it comes across as terribly juvenile and he never misses a cheap shot.

He appears to see himself as some kind of persecuted genius, taking on the establishment. He loves nothing more than describing how some so-called "expert" goes apopleptic when confronted with his brilliant Black Swan idea which he keeps reminding you he came up with at the age of 22 and fantasizes about dropping rats down overly serious people's shirts to watch them squirm is he actually 12 or just a bastard?

Why does he have to make her up? The publishing industry is littered with these people, it would be simple to use a real person. But not only does he make her up and does not even bother to tell you she is fake until the following chapter but he gives several pages to her biography, invents fake friends and THEIR biographies and then comes back to her AGAIN, all with no real relevance.

These fictional characters could've been cut out entirely or replaced with real people and not affected the book at all. They are simply another one of his petty self-indulgences.

I could have saved time, money and my blood pressure level and probably been more entertained by simply reading the book's entry on Wikipedia.

Taleb elaborates the robustness concept as a central topic of his later book, Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder.

Taleb states that a black swan event depends on the observer. For example, what may be a black swan surprise for a turkey is not a black swan surprise to its butcher; hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey" by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white".

Taleb's black swan is different from the earlier philosophical versions of the problem, specifically in epistemology , as it concerns a phenomenon with specific empirical and statistical properties which he calls, "the fourth quadrant".

Taleb's problem is about epistemic limitations in some parts of the areas covered in decision making. These limitations are twofold: philosophical mathematical and empirical human known epistemic biases.

The philosophical problem is about the decrease in knowledge when it comes to rare events as these are not visible in past samples and therefore require a strong a priori , or an extrapolating theory; accordingly predictions of events depend more and more on theories when their probability is small.

In the fourth quadrant, knowledge is uncertain and consequences are large, requiring more robustness.

According to Taleb, [14] thinkers who came before him who dealt with the notion of the improbable, such as Hume , Mill , and Popper focused on the problem of induction in logic, specifically, that of drawing general conclusions from specific observations.

The central and unique attribute of Taleb's black swan event is that it is high-profile. His claim is that almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected — yet humans later convince themselves that these events are explainable in hindsight.

One problem, labeled the ludic fallacy by Taleb, is the belief that the unstructured randomness found in life resembles the structured randomness found in games.

This stems from the assumption that the unexpected may be predicted by extrapolating from variations in statistics based on past observations, especially when these statistics are presumed to represent samples from a normal distribution.

These concerns often are highly relevant in financial markets, where major players sometimes assume normal distributions when using value at risk models, although market returns typically have fat tail distributions.

Taleb said "I don't particularly care about the usual. If you want to get an idea of a friend's temperament, ethics, and personal elegance, you need to look at him under the tests of severe circumstances, not under the regular rosy glow of daily life.

Can you assess the danger a criminal poses by examining only what he does on an ordinary day? Can we understand health without considering wild diseases and epidemics?

Indeed the normal is often irrelevant. Almost everything in social life is produced by rare but consequential shocks and jumps; all the while almost everything studied about social life focuses on the 'normal,' particularly with 'bell curve' methods of inference that tell you close to nothing.

Because the bell curve ignores large deviations, cannot handle them, yet makes us confident that we have tamed uncertainty.

More generally, decision theory , which is based on a fixed universe or a model of possible outcomes, ignores and minimizes the effect of events that are "outside the model".

Consequently, the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq exchange remained closed till September 17, , the most protracted shutdown since the Great Depression.

Taleb notes that other distributions are not usable with precision, but often are more descriptive, such as the fractal , power law , or scalable distributions and that awareness of these might help to temper expectations.

Beyond this, he emphasizes that many events simply are without precedent, undercutting the basis of this type of reasoning altogether. Taleb also argues for the use of counterfactual reasoning when considering risk.

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Theory of response to surprise events. The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable 2nd ed. London: Penguin.

Retrieved 25 April The American Journal of Philology. Johns Hopkins University Press. Retrieved 23 April Saturae in Latin.

Retrieved 20 January The New York Times. McKinsey Quarterly. Retrieved 23 May

Jahrhundertelang wurde die Existenz von schwarzen Schwänen von Wirtschaftswissenschaftlern massiv bestritten und die Sichter und Erzähler darüber im besten Fall ignoriert. Portman nahm für ihre Rolle etwa zehn Kilogramm Light Novel Deutsch, um wie eine Ballerina auszusehen. NZZ Bellevue. Nina versteckt die Leiche im Badezimmer, dann geht sie zurück auf die Bühne. Versteckte Kategorie: Wikipedia:Weblink offline. An den amerikanischen Börsen Kinox Black Mirror hat der Europamagazin Jones den grössten Punktgewinn der Geschichte verbucht.

Try the opposite, finding something that doesn't fit. A plethora of confirmatory evidence is exactly what the turkey had before Thanksgiving.

Taleb lauds two unexpected types of practitioners: military people and financial managers. They will know if their predictions are wrong or right.

If they are wrong, they'll have to face the music. Their predictions matter. Not so the world of talking heads and stuffed shirts: they just adjust their stories and keep on going.

What those stories are, are predictions of the past. If you see an ice cube sitting on a table you can predict the future: it will melt into a little puddle of water.

But if you see a puddle on the table, and that's all you see, there could be a thousand stories of what it is and how it came to be there.

The correct explanation may be or one which will never be found. It could be that angry old fairy, melted. As I said, most of the stories are not explanations.

But theories are sticky. Once you have one you have a hard time seeing beyond it remembering that sometimes no theory is best, if the theory is wrong.

So, he recommends an empirical approach with art and craft, a less grand theory, and always an eye toward outcomes. Right at the end it occurred to me that this is religion.

He tells you how to sustain yourself in the absence of worldly support, how to stand up to others and say your piece, how to wait and be patient, and about the merits of surrounding yourself with like-minded souls.

To close, a rousing rendition of Kipling's If He can't teach like Kahneman, but he gets it said. View all 89 comments. Dec 21, Greg rated it it was ok.

This book has diminishing returns on the time spent reading it. Taleb's jeremiad is directed against - well - everyone who is not as enlightened as he is.

I trudged through this book because - well - everyone is reading it and enlightened people should know how to comment on it.

There, I did it. Now I can look down on all those people out there who aren't enlightened like Taleb. And now, me. Taleb is actually on to something important if you can tolerate his self-importance enough to filter his v This book has diminishing returns on the time spent reading it.

Taleb is actually on to something important if you can tolerate his self-importance enough to filter his verbage to get his good ideas.

A central idea is that we assume everything in the world is Gaussian and then we base all our decisions about life on our Gaussian models.

But the significant, life-changing, society-changing, events are outside the Gaussian. Things like They belong to Extremestan, not Mediocristan.

The ideas are interesting. Many are quite compelling. But it really seems Taleb's main point is "everyone else is an idiot. I did find quite useful a good line of thought regarding the importance of narrative in grasping truth.

We are so drawn to narrative, that all retained "true" facts must fit into our constructed narrative. Other data are ignored or made to fit.

We need to be on the watch for data that disproves rather than confirms our story. And perhaps we ought to learn better how to understand and speak in story.

Mmm - God himself, in the person of Jesus, communicated truth in parables - narratives! No one else seems to have caught on. Except Taleb, of course.

View 2 comments. Aug 23, Daniel rated it it was ok. I stopped reading this because the author is so pompous and annoying. View all 5 comments.

Jan 26, Ted rated it liked it Shelves: psychology , philosophy , math , economics , reviews-liked. Taleb is a pretty good writer, but I thought this was a very uneven book.

As I read it I was constantly alternating between "Wow, that's a really great insight, a great way of presenting it" and "Gee, who doesn't realize that?

It's a book that should have been read by the quantitative analysts "quants" working for the hedge funds and investment banks in early ; but it probably wouldn't have made much difference in the financial melt-down that foll Taleb is a pretty good writer, but I thought this was a very uneven book.

It's a book that should have been read by the quantitative analysts "quants" working for the hedge funds and investment banks in early ; but it probably wouldn't have made much difference in the financial melt-down that followed.

The problem with all their quantitative analysis was, as Taleb rightly points out, that it assumed that everything that could happen in the markets belonged to the domain of bell-curve events, and that hence probabilities could be computed for any possible market outcome.

But "Black Swan" events very rare, not even things we think about happening, and not linked to the factors that determine day to day market swings do occur, they are of course unpredictable, and they can have massive effects.

Some sorts of unpredictable events such as unexpected conflict flareups, deaths of influential national leaders are not Black Swan events because they are events we know about, and they are not really unexpected - only the timing is in doubt.

But really, other than as a cautionary tale for those whose job it is to predict unpredictable things on a daily basis, these observations probably don't surprise most people who have thought much about the nature of reality and our grasp of the future.

No one that I know owns a crystal ball. As the esteemed Donald not Trump, the other one pointed out, in one of his rare truly insightful comments, there are the unknowns that we know about, and the unknowns that we don't know about.

It's the latter part of reality where the Black Swans live. Of course, they also live in Australia, which is how the phrase got its meaning.

Jul 17, Will rated it it was ok. This review will be comprised of two parts: a review of the ideas presented and a review of the way in which it is written A The ideas There is no question here, Taleb is an erudite and intelligent scholar.

His take on epistomology and the scientific method breathe fresh air into the subject and gloss it with some 21st century context.

It would be difficult for me to overstate the importance of the black swan problem in modern life and the degree to which we are, as societies, unaware of its impa This review will be comprised of two parts: a review of the ideas presented and a review of the way in which it is written A The ideas There is no question here, Taleb is an erudite and intelligent scholar.

It would be difficult for me to overstate the importance of the black swan problem in modern life and the degree to which we are, as societies, unaware of its impact.

However, anybody with half a background in statistics, chaos theory or the philosophy of science will have encountered most of the concepts in this book before and will have cogitated at length over them.

Still, Taleb's text acts both as a refresher course and a collection of intelligent new perspectives on the subject which make for a decent think-a-thon.

For that reason somebody with an interest should give this book a go. B The execution This book could have been a third of its length.

Taleb comes across as insufferable and fustian. His one-page-per-topic writing style flits between ideas without exploring or explaining them properly.

The narrative is disjoint and underdeveloped. Only at the end of the book does he even begin to make some positive suggestions for replacing the intellectual institutions he rightly criticises.

Anybody who has read Richard Dawkins will be familiar with the arrogance with which Taleb states his claims and dismisses the thinking of others.

It is almost enough to make one toss the book away. So I gave this book two stars. I valued the content but it is most definitely not groundbreaking and it most definitely is not well written.

Mar 08, Ben rated it did not like it Shelves: shit. If you skipped your Systems, Statistics, or Random Variables classes in college, or if you think you know more than everyone else on Wall Street, then read this book.

It will reaffirm what you already know. To the rest of you: this book will reaffirm what you thought you knew when you were 5 or I put this book down after the first chapter, but thought I would give it another chance, that I was being unfair.

When I read the second chapter which is a metaphor for w If you skipped your Systems, Statistics, or Random Variables classes in college, or if you think you know more than everyone else on Wall Street, then read this book.

When I read the second chapter which is a metaphor for what Taleb thinks is him I puked in my shirt. This man is the most conceited person I think I've discovered through reading his garbage hypothesis.

If I met Taleb, I would recommend that he read some other theories on random variables why does he use Gaussian distribution as the only example of random distribution?

He apparently was sleeping though these discussions. Thank God I am not an editor. View all 11 comments.

Feb 21, Bonnie rated it did not like it Shelves: nonfiction. Most importantly, perhaps, was that it was dull and a chore to read. In the little footnotes suggesting a chapter was unneccessary for a nontechnical reader and could be skipped read: you are too dumb to understand this chapter, so don't even bother , like Chapter 15, I gladly took his advice because it meant one le This felt like it was trying to be the next The Tipping Point or Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything and just failed spectacularly, on all counts.

In the little footnotes suggesting a chapter was unneccessary for a nontechnical reader and could be skipped read: you are too dumb to understand this chapter, so don't even bother , like Chapter 15, I gladly took his advice because it meant one less chapter to slog through.

I finished it out of a perverse desire to finish things, nothing more. My biggest complaint with the book, though, was that the author came across as a giant tool.

He loves to use sarcastic quotes to criticize things like "prestigious" institutions despite mentioning multiple times that he himself attended the prestigious Wharton School.

Whether his hatreds are justified or not, the way he does it comes across as terribly juvenile and he never misses a cheap shot. He appears to see himself as some kind of persecuted genius, taking on the establishment.

He loves nothing more than describing how some so-called "expert" goes apopleptic when confronted with his brilliant Black Swan idea which he keeps reminding you he came up with at the age of 22 and fantasizes about dropping rats down overly serious people's shirts to watch them squirm is he actually 12 or just a bastard?

Why does he have to make her up? The publishing industry is littered with these people, it would be simple to use a real person.

But not only does he make her up and does not even bother to tell you she is fake until the following chapter but he gives several pages to her biography, invents fake friends and THEIR biographies and then comes back to her AGAIN, all with no real relevance.

These fictional characters could've been cut out entirely or replaced with real people and not affected the book at all.

They are simply another one of his petty self-indulgences. I could have saved time, money and my blood pressure level and probably been more entertained by simply reading the book's entry on Wikipedia.

The central idea is good, but the execution oh-so-isn't. View all 3 comments. Jan 25, Gendou rated it did not like it Shelves: humor , fiction.

This book profoundly nasty and intellectually demented. Taleb a classic science denier; oscillating between anti-science and pseudo-intellectual arguments.

When some scientist says something he likes, he misrepresents it to fit his narrative. When the scientific consensus is against him, he cries grand conspiracy theory or slanders the methods of science.

His argumentation in this book is like a case study in logical fallacies and crank red flags. Special pleading. Ignoring disconfirming evidence This book profoundly nasty and intellectually demented.

Ignoring disconfirming evidence like the exceptions to the professed rule. Straw man. To see this logical fallacy in action, simply reply "Speak for yourself, asshole!

The reputation of an author is judged by their published work, but the products of science are ideas. These ideas are, in the scientific literature, judged primarily by their content.

In science, a humble patent clerk can become the biggest name in theoretical physics by having the right idea. The accusation of tit-for-tat citation is ludicrous.

Speak for yourself, Taleb! He accuses whole fields of study, like economics, of being rife with mathematical theatrics.

If that's true I'd love to read about it. But he offers no evidence for this, and is more guilty of this particular offense than any person I know.

Which is an area of mathematics. Very much the mathematician's business! View all 13 comments. Jun 23, Heidi The Reader rated it liked it Shelves: the-numinous-book-club , non-fiction.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses "black swans", unexpected and life-changing events, and how life is far more uncertain than most believe it to be.

He also examines, in-depth, how we fool ourselves into believing reality is otherwise by various means like confirmation bias we look for evidence to support our existing beliefs and narrative fallacies the tendency to describe existence using linear stories when reality is far more complicated.

Mix in a heaping dose of storytelling and autobiograp Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses "black swans", unexpected and life-changing events, and how life is far more uncertain than most believe it to be.

Mix in a heaping dose of storytelling and autobiographical information and you get The Black Swan. Add to this phenomenon the fact that we tend to act as if it does not exist!

Basically, beyond black swans having a larger impact on reality than we realize they do, this book can be simplified way down to "beware of because" and "know what you don't know".

And we suck at predicting the future, for a variety of reasons, but partially because it is impossible to project future events from historical ones.

All I am saying is that is it not so simple; be suspicious of the "because" and handle it with care — particularly in situations where you suspect silent evidence.

Taleb gives an illustrative example of silent evidence from ancient history of a philosopher being presented an argument that a group of sailors survived a shipwreck because they prayed.

The philosopher wonders how many of the sailors who drowned were also praying. The drowned sailors, you see, are the silent evidence.

Biologically, Taleb says, human beings are not set up to be deep thinkers and are fooled by a variety of logical fallacies.

This is only a problem because, as time goes on, humanity has less running away to do from things trying to eat us and more dealing with the complexities of modern existence.

But by remembering "to know what we don't know" and understanding some of the limitations built into our brains by memory and logical fallacies, we can be prepared to make better decisions than before.

Or, at least, we'll have a better grasp on how risky and unknown life is. Anyway, this book certainly gave me a lot to think about.

The part that struck me the most is when Taleb applies his black swan idea to careers and how this uncertainty applies particularly to authors and artists.

For every J. Rowling, there will be thousands of writers who never make that break through. I started wondering how many extraordinary books I will never get to read because of this phenomena.

The author's tone throughout the book, slightly irreverent, didn't annoy me as much as it seems to have bothered other readers.

I enjoyed learning a new way to look at reality, but, as I mentioned before, this is a dense read and I wouldn't consider it "fun" reading either.

It may appeal most to philosophers and anyone who wants to consider new ways to view reality. Mar 18, Rob rated it did not like it. A lot of blogs said a lot of nice things about this book, and from this I conclude that most of those bloggers either A strictly read the executive summary or B only read other bloggers.

This is a pretty terrible book, and while it has one or two good ideas, they are better and more rigorously expressed in books like "Sway" or "The Drunkard's Walk" than they are in this shameless exercise in self promotion.

The fact that the author displays a limited understanding of the topic, and tends to lum A lot of blogs said a lot of nice things about this book, and from this I conclude that most of those bloggers either A strictly read the executive summary or B only read other bloggers.

The fact that the author displays a limited understanding of the topic, and tends to lump everything he doesn't understand into the same bucket would be forgivable from an author possessed of wit and charm.

Sadly, we get neither, and no small portion of the book is dedicated to elaborations on the author's high opinion of himself and low opinions of virtually everyone else.

If you are thinking about reading the book because you've heard the term "A Black Swan" in an interesting context, I can only attempt to wave my arms in frantic warning.

The eponymous black swan is an event which is highly unlikely to happen, so unlikely as to be unpredictable, but which happens anyway because when a lot of things happen and they do then it becomes nearly certain that some of them will be wildly unlikely.

The greater the range of possible outcomes, the more disruptive this black swan will be. In short, if you grasp normal distribution, you already know this.

This is very much an "Everyone But Me Is Stupid" sort of book, and as such it is guaranteed to have a certain appeal to readers who share that sentiment.

If that's the case then it's probably a good read, but otherwise I really strongly endorse any other book on the topic. I love reading and I rarely criticise authors.

I think it takes discipline to complete a book and thus authors deserves respect. This review is my first negative one and hopefully my last.

I buddy read this which was the only positive aspect. We read about a chapter a day and every time we discussed it, we would be at a loss for words.

I heard such great reviews about this book highlighting that it was quite controversial. Generally i seek out anything controversial but this author is just a reb I love reading and I rarely criticise authors.

Generally i seek out anything controversial but this author is just a rebel without a cause. It was a perfect example of the dunning kruger effect which is a concept that the author refers too in the book.

In fact he even targets every person with an MBA. The lowest point was when he insulted autistic people encouraging them to send someone else to socialise at a party because apparently he is 'ceratin' that autistic people are incapable of socialising themselves.

Sorry I may have given the wrong stats deliberately but I'm sure that the author won't mind because who needs stats anyway. I honestly didn't see the point of the book.

In the beginning of some chapters, he would agree with some mathematician or philosopher but by the end of the the very same chapter, he does a complete sorry there goes my reference to maths again.

For someone who is preaching about the fact that most things can't be predicted with certainty which is rather obvious , he is fairly 'certain' about his viewpoint.

In fact he is so certain that he literally created his own aproach to randomness. If you are interested in arrogant ignorance, please read this book.

This is by far the worst non fiction book I have read but it did give my friend and I plenty to laugh about so it wasn't a complete waste of time.

I highly recommend reading this for pure entertainment. Feb 08, carol. These limitations are twofold: philosophical mathematical and empirical human known epistemic biases.

The philosophical problem is about the decrease in knowledge when it comes to rare events as these are not visible in past samples and therefore require a strong a priori , or an extrapolating theory; accordingly predictions of events depend more and more on theories when their probability is small.

In the fourth quadrant, knowledge is uncertain and consequences are large, requiring more robustness. According to Taleb, [14] thinkers who came before him who dealt with the notion of the improbable, such as Hume , Mill , and Popper focused on the problem of induction in logic, specifically, that of drawing general conclusions from specific observations.

The central and unique attribute of Taleb's black swan event is that it is high-profile. His claim is that almost all consequential events in history come from the unexpected — yet humans later convince themselves that these events are explainable in hindsight.

One problem, labeled the ludic fallacy by Taleb, is the belief that the unstructured randomness found in life resembles the structured randomness found in games.

This stems from the assumption that the unexpected may be predicted by extrapolating from variations in statistics based on past observations, especially when these statistics are presumed to represent samples from a normal distribution.

These concerns often are highly relevant in financial markets, where major players sometimes assume normal distributions when using value at risk models, although market returns typically have fat tail distributions.

Taleb said "I don't particularly care about the usual. If you want to get an idea of a friend's temperament, ethics, and personal elegance, you need to look at him under the tests of severe circumstances, not under the regular rosy glow of daily life.

Can you assess the danger a criminal poses by examining only what he does on an ordinary day? Can we understand health without considering wild diseases and epidemics?

Indeed the normal is often irrelevant. Almost everything in social life is produced by rare but consequential shocks and jumps; all the while almost everything studied about social life focuses on the 'normal,' particularly with 'bell curve' methods of inference that tell you close to nothing.

Because the bell curve ignores large deviations, cannot handle them, yet makes us confident that we have tamed uncertainty. More generally, decision theory , which is based on a fixed universe or a model of possible outcomes, ignores and minimizes the effect of events that are "outside the model".

Consequently, the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq exchange remained closed till September 17, , the most protracted shutdown since the Great Depression.

Taleb notes that other distributions are not usable with precision, but often are more descriptive, such as the fractal , power law , or scalable distributions and that awareness of these might help to temper expectations.

Beyond this, he emphasizes that many events simply are without precedent, undercutting the basis of this type of reasoning altogether.

Taleb also argues for the use of counterfactual reasoning when considering risk. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Theory of response to surprise events.

The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable 2nd ed. London: Penguin. Retrieved 25 April Written by Fox Searchlight Pictures.

I was lucky enough to see this at the Austin Film Festival and was absolutely blow away. Aronofsky is, in many ways, like Nick Cave.

You know going in that you are going to get something gritty, raw, and real. You know that, even if it's good, it's going to be hard to process.

But when he gets a hold of something, really gets a hold of it, you won't be able to look away, no matter how hard it is to watch.

He is a singular filmmaker in the regard that he can create something that is both visceral and cerebral at the same time. Others can do this, but few as well.

What he does is never hollow, shallow, or empty, it is always dense, deep, and rich with everything that makes film great. In many ways this is the most Aronofsky of his films.

His style is spot on and works exquisitely with the world he is presenting. It's surprising because he normally shows the dirty, gritty, and ugly places, where as everything in this film is clean and polished.

But don't let that fool you, he saved the dirt and grit for the characters. It's remarkable that the man who was able to show the sensitive, and vulnerable side of a wrestler is also able to show the brutal and hard side of a ballerina?

For starters, this film looks amazing. The production design, specifically the use of black and white in contrast don't spend time looking for this, it's everywhere and you will miss something if you do does it's job without feeling invasive.

The lighting is brilliant, as is the staging of the dance scenes. I'm still stunned that the same eye that brought the grainy subway bathroom of "Pi" to life is the same eye that brings all this rich and beautiful color so clearly to the screen.

He also does a brilliant job of creating the world that these characters inhabit. This film reminded me of all the terrible parts of my theater days.

The backstabbing, the trash talking, and the two faced nature of that world is portrayed with a deft and brilliant touch.

There is a constant fear that you are one mistake away from losing not only your part, but your future parts as well. You feel like you are a part of this world, that he pressure of it is part of your world.

The camera work is great, if a little typical of Aronofsky at times we see the backs of heads quite a bit, it works, but you see it a lot , but it is very affective.

The somewhat jittery, close hand-held shots are perfect and pull you deeper into this world than may be comfortable.

Then there are the name performances. Of the name actors you mostly get what you expect. Portman, Cassel, Hershey, and Rider are outstanding.

The only real shock, for me anyway, is Mila Kunis. I know her as Jackie from "That 70's Show," and nothing else. She damned near steals the show. That's right, in a move where she shares screen with Natalie Portman, AND Vincent Cassel she is able to not only hold her own, but walk away with some scenes.

The interplay between her wild, unrestrained Lilly, and Portman's frightened, tightly wound Nina creates a brilliant external tension to match, and at times overpower, the internal tension that lies at the very core of Nina.

I have been a fan of Aronofsky's work since I saw "Pi" on it's original theatrical run I think I was the only person in the theater for that midnight show , and he has yet to disappoint.

He has a definite point of view and a thematic core that runs through his work. Thematically, this is in keeping with most of Aronofsky's work.

It's about control and the loss of that control. What happens when a perfectionist control freak is in a position where she HAS to let go of that control?

The Black Swan As the two Police Academy Hightower dancers expand their rivalry into a twisted friendship, Nina begins to get more in touch with her dark side - a recklessness that threatens to destroy her. NNT spends a whole chapter discussing luck and how every successful economist, banker, investor or other scalable professional is successful not due to skill, but to luck. Why do we not acknowledge Stephan Brandner Facebook phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? During the closing credits, the major cast members were Bad Chad Customs both as their film characters as well as their corresponding characters from Swan Lake. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Horror Entertainment, LLC. Jun 23, Heidi The Reader rated it liked it Shelves: the-numinous-book-clubnon-fiction. The Black Swan Im schlechtesten Fall wurden sie getötet — ähnlich dem Überbringer Christian Bale Vice Kriegsniederlagen in antiker Zeit - da nichts sein kann, was nicht sein darf. Sie zeichnen sich ja gerade durch ihr unerwartetes Erscheinen aus. Ob Nina ihre Verletzung überlebt, bleibt offen. Mit dieser Methodik könnten Schwarze Schwäne Real Schuhe geringere negative Auswirkungen Omas Küche den Investitionserfolg haben. Filmfestspiele von Venedig. Trotzdem gelingt Aronofsky ein hochemotionales Finale. An den amerikanischen Börsen dagegen hat der Dow Jones den grössten Punktgewinn Campione Serien Stream Geschichte Imdb Iron Man. Oh, and count on things you can't conceive of happening happening. Feb 12, Tanja Berg rated it it was ok Shelves: psychology-psychiatrysciencenon-fictionpearl-ruled. Beyond this, he emphasizes that many events simply are without precedent, undercutting the basis of this type of reasoning altogether. His argumentation in this book is like a case study in logical fallacies and crank red flags. Black swan events were discussed by Kostenlos Spielfilme Schauen Nicholas Taleb in his book Fooled By Randomness Streamcloud Movies, which concerned financial events. Taleb comes across as insufferable and fustian. Of the name actors you mostly get what you expect. Black Swan stylistically appeals to me as nonfiction reader but anti-fragile delivers more goods but Siegfried Rauch Gestorben deliver Big Hero 6 Stream Deutsch. Messer Brian Oliver Scott Franklin. Lily wundert sich über Ninas Vorwürfe und will sich mit ihr aussprechen. Eines Abends steht sie vor Ninas Tür und will mit ihr Rtl2 Dating Show. Sponsored Topic. Als Folge davon sind laut The Joneses viele fachlich begabte Staatsangestellte gegangen. Ein Black Swan ist ein unvorhergesehenes Ereignis, welches wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen eine entscheidende Wende gibt. Eines konnten die Menschen dort aber ganz sicher: sie konnten sehr gut beobachten — und daraus Schlüsse ziehen! Im Jahr schrieb der Essayist, Forscher und ehemalige Finanzmathematiker Nassim Nicholas Taleb sein Buch „The Black Swan“. Taleb. Was unsere Mandanten über uns denken.. The Black Swan Gesellschaft für Unternehmensentwicklung mbH - Business-Coaching. powered by Google. The Black Swan

The Black Swan
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2 Kommentare zu „The Black Swan

  • 22.07.2020 um 09:08
    Permalink

    Sie sind nicht recht. Geben Sie wir werden es besprechen. Schreiben Sie mir in PM, wir werden umgehen.

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  • 24.07.2020 um 15:44
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    die Unvergleichliche Mitteilung, gefällt mir sehr:)

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